Sunday, January 31, 2016

Viewpoint - China's Geopolitical Variances

This is a precise and as well a good input of analyses that gives the whole picture about China's geographic areas and as well its implications among its neighbors.

DESCRIBING THE MAP



China is a vast place bordering south-south tropics, south west mountainous, arid west, semi-frigid north,or basically left of it is a vast natural barrier inhospitable to a few fauna/flora. It is a land span of thousand square kilometers of no economic & military value to its neighbors, even with a drastic GDP growth rate. There are spaces china wants to expand since it simply gives added security of any influence as the regions is a volatile poor region, which is indicated by the ORANGE ENVELOPE (its not even worried about its western borders for now). 

To the lower right of the map is the RED ENVELOPE, which contains the fertile and rich sector. It is place of production and good life to date for the majority of the HAN ethnicity. Unlike the orange envelope where the politburo wants total control, these areas are the playground for politics for both local and international theater as it can be easily handled with having a malleable populace. 

The YELLOW LINE indicates the influence and current US pacific naval capability to contain communist China's propaganda and military might projection. The single LAVENDER LINE is the current cabbage policy which is a tip toe (and seemingly innocent push) for China to routinely question and challenge US and its allies of their establish De - facto controlled area (to ultimately change any ground status quo). 

The DOUBLE LAVENDER LINES are China's projection of deprivation of foreign influence (both economic & military) on nearby seas. An area, once semi-controlled or heavily lined, is intimidated or routinely projected a  wide scope of "ours" areas! China, perhaps, believes they can attain such a balance once a measure is overly advantageous for them. Thus, producing systems which needed only to counter immediate threat and by-passing (not spending) things. They believe that US will never use against  weapons of mass destruction against them like nuke subs, MERV's, ICBMs. 

PINK DOUBLE LINES are the Japanese 2d/AD strategy to deploy affordable line of fixed and mobile system of launchers to counter missile, air and sea threats which can strain China's present and future deployment. A small scale deployment throughout the coastal areas in the Philippine West Sea co-provided or joint task with allies may provide some substantial investment breathing space. And thus, putting into place a deterrent system well ahead of time.

ADDITIONAL FACTORS

Coinciding with the kind of Geopolitics China had, let give this considerations...

Taiwan remains the focus of all belligerent action by the PLAN. Moreso now with a pro-independence leadership in Taipei.

Xinjiang is becoming more restive and diverting land-based resources from the maritime regions of China.

The higher rate of economic development along the coast has left the interior regions poorer and angrier. Also, cities like Shanghai and Guangdong have populations that don't favor centralisation in Beijing.

The result is that the simultaneous power projections will cost the central government heavily.

The best recourse for a country like the Philippines, which is now having disputes with China over the contested Spratly (Kalayaan) Islands, is to add to the diplomatic pressure and further strengthen links with Taiwan, India, and Japan.


SIMPLIFIED ANALYSIS

Giving the map, this gives the overall idea that China deals not one, not two, but many potential enemies all across the boarders like India over some parts of Himalayas, Vietnam in the Paracels, Philippines in Scarborough Shoal, Japan in the Senkakus, the Spratly Islands, among others. Not to mention internal conflicts like some several separatist movements in Uyghur and Tibet and as well the poverty margin across Eastern China and several political issues with the subordinates such as Hong Kong and Macau, and as well the ever-changing cross-strait relations with Taiwan, whose democratic government is now governed by pro-independence statesmen.

With this, it gives the impression that if any of this disputes goes unfavorably with the Chinese Politburo, everything else follows. It will go like some sort of a domino effect that will eventually topple the Chinese communist regime. Having this things done very carefully, and the PRC will gain unnoticed. One wrong move, and it will spell the end of Communist China's rule over the nation.

With ideas from Delbert Aldea and Mario Fernandez, Defense of the Republic of the Philippines [link]

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