Monday, December 7, 2015

With today's crisis, it is safe to say that our nation's sovereignty is at risk and is on the verge of ultimate destruction if we don't act fast. It was like South Vietnam all over again.


This is a viewpoint shared by a friend and also the resident expert named Edrick Masangkay.


Johnson Reef. Source: amti.csis.org


We have to keep in mind the implications of the loss of the WPS.

Much has been made of the massive oil reserves that are believed to be underneath the sea in that area. We've already mentioned the loss of access to fishing in those waters, and how 
the massive scale of Chinese fishing in that area also affects fish stocks within Philippine internal waters.

What else?

The Chinese are already fortifying those artificial islands. Permanent loss of the WPS, means consenting to the presence of Chinese air and naval bases within 200 miles of Philippine shores. How does that effect the Philippines, with a superpower military threat so close by? Will the Chinese use those bases like a dagger to the heart of the Philippines and try to affect its affairs or to extract further concessions?

While all of the attention is focused to the west, keep in mind that Taiwan is also trying carve out chunks of the EEZ to the north. Could a capitulation in the WPS lead to a more weakened position to the north?

Will our allies like the US and Japan continue to trust us if after years of crying for help, we prove once again to be an unreliable partner?

Right now a lot of Middle Easter oil pass through the waters of the WPS. What if the Chinese were to restrict or close off those waters? If the Chinese were to get their Nine Dash Line boundary, only a very narrow international water corridor would remain, which would be pinched off at its southern end. How would the flow of oil and other trade continue?

And there are probably other consequences we haven't even begun to think of.

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